Archive for September, 2009

Reality check

September 28th, 2009

With markets roaring ahead and economists muttering about strong growth in the Western economies, one feels a little churlish in pointing out the Panglossian nature of these pronouncements, but we do feel compelled to dwell on a few of the less positive economic issues that seem to have been temporarily forgotten by the newly emboldened investor. First and foremost, it’s Government. Yup, the institutions that belatedly saved the world economy by spending your children’s taxes have run out of cash and the ability to write credible IOUs , otherwise known as bonds. Ponder on California letting convicts out of prison because they cannot pay the wardens anymore if you think ongoing debt issuance will be painless – and that is while Central Banks are artificially depressing rates. The official prognostications for deficits are scary enough, yet we know they are predicated on a politician’s make-believe world where » Read more: Reality check

Jeff Coggshall – August 2009

September 18th, 2009

Jeff CoggshallEven without much improvement in exports to the US, China’s V-shaped economic recovery is so obvious now that very dark glasses and a blindfold would be needed not to see it. Not only have fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production, and loan growth been strong and getting stronger, but for the average resident of Guangzhou, Chongqing or Beijing, there is an increasingly clear feeling that the economy will soon return to full health and rapid growth. This has now broadened out to include nearly all segments of the economy, dispelling previous concerns about sustainability. We have been talking about a full recovery in China since late last year, and our view has not changed. China’s economy is in good health, and the opportunities are multiplying. Where we differ is how fast we think China will tighten.

Among “sophisticated Asian investors” the view remains that China is structurally doomed to always tighten too late. This is of course because local governments and state owned enterprises do not invest on the basis of return on capital, but for bragging rights under an over-arching mandate to maintain full employment. It has also been China’s » Read more: Jeff Coggshall – August 2009

Mark Fleming – August 2009

September 14th, 2009

Mark FlemmingHow can you have inflation with such a large output gap? This is a common refrain from anyone still in possession of an economics textbook (full disclosure – I have never owned one) and one that seems intuitively sensible. More supply than demand should push prices down, right? The problem with this cosy assumption is, however, twofold. It is directly contradicted by a few episodes of recent history and relies on an assumption of trend and potential growth rates, which as is usual with practitioners of the dismal ‘science’ involves nothing more sophisticated than putting a ruler over the last few years experience.

Remember the 1970s in the UK? The winter of discontent, 3 day weeks, blackouts – and rampant inflation (not to mention the golden era of rock music, 1968-1976). The oil shock was the catalyst, but the whole unsavoury episode is a clear reminder that stagflation is possible. Inflexible work practices and barriers to the free flow of trade and capital contributed as well, but we think that it is premature to declare it all right now, especially as we see all the » Read more: Mark Fleming – August 2009

Australian property still a bargain

September 2nd, 2009

All property investors love a bargain, and six months ago one was spoilt for choice. Opportunities to buy a dollar of assets for 50 cents – or in some cases, 15 cents – abounded. This was a geographically widespread phenomenon, which has recently disappeared in most countries as market prices have soared and dilutive equity issues have proliferated. There is one glaring exception, and ironically in a country with very little oversupply of commercial property and a resilient economy.

Australia is the last bastion of discounts to NAV, somewhat ironically as the sector has historically traded at a big premium, unlike the UK or US where the newly arrived premia are » Read more: Australian property still a bargain

Renewables

September 1st, 2009

Renewable energy will be an investment theme for the foreseeable future, and we are very attuned to some recent developments that have the potential to revolutionise energy production. The two areas we would highlight, both represented in the portfolio, are underground coal gasification and wide band photovoltaic cells. The former is not a new concept, but the first attempts over the last 50 years or so in Russia and the U.S. were dogged by (avoidable) environmental issues, and many people now ignore the possibilities. Yet it is now possible to safely burn coal deposits underground that are too thin and/or deep to mine conventionally with a minimum of capital expenditure or environmental risk but with a far greater overall efficiency than by any form of conventional mining. Like coal bed methane this is a sector » Read more: Renewables